The Assumption Ledger
What you know vs what you hope
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Ventures & Intelligence
Use this to sort what you actually know from what you’re hoping is true, before you commit anyone to a direction.
1. The claim
Write down the statement driving the decision, one sentence, no hedging.
2. The evidence
List what you have actually seen or measured. If it’s a hunch dressed up as fact, call it a hunch.
3. The cost of being wrong
Say plainly what it costs if this turns out false: time, money, or the kind of reputational damage that doesn’t show up on a spreadsheet.
4. The smallest test
Name the smallest thing you could do that would change your confidence inside two weeks.
Rule
If you can’t name a test, you don’t have a decision yet. You have a preference with good posture.
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